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Throughout history, the rise and fall of empires, strategies, and significant decisions have often intertwined; eras have come and gone, yet beneath the surface, certain themes remain consistently prevalentAs we delve into the intricacies of these relationships, we uncover a narrative that resonates far beyond its timeLet us examine an instructive tale that sheds light on this enduring universal truth.
Once recorded in "The Collection of Wise Strategies" by Feng Menglong, we are transported back to the Han Dynasty in 100 ADThe esteemed official Ban Chao, who spent his life serving in the Western Regions, penned a letter to the emperor as he aged, expressing a heartfelt desire to retire and spend his remaining days peacefully, stating, "May I live to enter the Jade Gate Pass." Born in 32 AD, Ban Chao was approaching the venerable age—particularly significant in a time when life expectancy was considerably lower than it is today.
The Han Emperor He responded favorably to Ban Chao's request, assigning a newcomer named Ren Shang to take over Ban Chao's role in managing the vast and diverse territory of the Western Regions
Upon meeting Ban Chao, Ren Shang sought advice from this seasoned veteran, asking how one could possibly govern such a colossal area filled with numerous ethnic groupsHe humbly acknowledged his lack of experience, having spent only a few years in governmental roles compared to Ban Chao's thirty years of service.
Ban Chao, with the wisdom of his experience, imparted crucial insights about the local populace, mentioning that most of the Han presence in the region was not due to a voluntary choice but rather as a result of crimes that had led to their deportation—“The officials outside the border are not dutiful children; they were all exiled due to their wrongdoings.” He described the local tribes as fierce and challenging to manage, explaining that governance could not be approached with a heavy hand, as it would lead to inevitable failure.
Understanding this delicate situation, Ban Chao advised Ren Shang to adopt a lenient governance style, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a broad perspective while allowing room for minor transgressions
He warned Ren Shang to temper his naturally stern disposition, stating, “If you are too strict, the waters will run clear, but there will be no fish.” Summing it up, his strategy could be boiled down to a simple premise: maintain flexibility while focusing on overarching principles.
However, Ren Shang, dismissing Ban Chao's seemingly simplistic advice as common knowledge, initially did not heed his wordsHe confided to his close associates, "I expected to learn extraordinary strategies from Ban Chao, but his counsel is rather plain." Yet simplicity can often mask profound wisdom, and Ren Shang's hubris led him to disregard the very experience that could have saved himShortly after taking office, the Western Regions spiraled into rebellion, validating Ban Chao's previous warnings.
The hubris of Ren Shang in rejecting the straightforward advice from a master led to significant unrest
His failure serves as a cautionary tale that still rings true todayIn contemporary finance and investment, we find parallels to this age-old narrativeMany modern investors, akin to Ren Shang, believe that the wisdom offered by seasoned investors—many of whom possess the wealth of experience akin to Ban Chao—is too simplistic or unsuitable for their needs.
Icons of value investing such as Warren Buffett, Walter Schloss, and Howard Marks repeatedly advise that successful investments are grounded in a few fundamental principles: identifying long-term quality companies, buying at a fair price, and managing investments prudently by diversifying to mitigate errors in judgment.
Yet despite such straightforward guidelines, countless investors remain skeptical, often exclaiming, “It can’t be that simple to make money!” or “Investment strategies from abroad don’t apply to our market.” There exists a pervasive belief that industry titans must possess undisclosed secrets that fuel their successes, while the obvious paths seem too pedestrian, reminiscent of Ren Shang’s disregarding of Ban Chao’s foundational wisdom.
Moreover, corporate behemoths' actions often provide clear guidance for investors
Major shareholders typically buy their own shares when the market undervalues them significantly, or conversely, they may offload shares when the price climbs too highSince these shareholders often founded their companies, their decisions offer invaluable insights into the firm's true valueFollowing their example could greatly enhance individual investment strategies.
Nevertheless, many investors substitute sound judgment for mere conjecture, interpreting major shareholders’ actions in a negative light—“The major shareholder is selling due to financial necessity, the company is fine!” or “The founder may be out of touch with modern trends, which renders his decisions unreliable.” Such rationalizations can lead to considerable missteps in investment decisions.
During moments of significant market overvaluation, regulatory entities often issue warnings to protect investors from potential downturns
The appropriate course of action would be to evaluate the market conditions critically and avoid overvalued assetsYet, many investors remain oblivious to these warnings, tempted by the lure of soaring prices, often disregarding significant risk factors.
Our history illustrates a paramount lesson: simplicity is often the cornerstone of successThe most effective strategies frequently lack complexity, and the experiences shared by successful figures tend to be grounded in fundamental principles that resonate through the agesFor today’s investors, it’s important to cast aside unfounded biases and embrace proven strategies that have withstood the test of time, much as Ban Chao’s insights did in the realm of governanceBy doing so, they can navigate today’s complex market landscape and arrive at informed, successful decisions reminiscent of the wisdom from ages past.
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